November Perspective

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This month has finally brought us to the conclusion of the U.S. elections, and our expectations of status quo in Washington have come to pass. The markets’ focus has immediately turned to the “fiscal cliff,” which the Congressional Budget Office estimates has the potential to lead to a 2.9% decline in growth in the first half of 2013 if left unaddressed. The impact on growth from the fiscal cliff negotiation is a wildcard, but we believe neither party sees political benefit by creating a new recession. This comes at a time of continued uneven global growth trends.

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